Using Math to Find the Next MLB Expansion Cities

When discussing possible expansion or relocation in the MLB, you hear the same three or four cities. Montreal, Las Vegas, Nashville, and Vancouver are, for the most part, the main cities brought up. Maybe a Salt Lake City or Mexico City thrown in so that it doesn’t seem like the MLB is pushing for the same four cities (even though they are), so I’ve decided to rank 16 US cities that I believe have a shot at whether it is a good one or not is up for debate. Now, first, why only US cities? Well, that’s because Baseball is AMERICA’s pastime, so US ONLY cities. Second, to make this list, a few things had to be met to be considered. 1 The city must be in the top 50 for most populated Metros or city limits: no Omaha, no New Orleans, no Hawaii, and no Boise. Second, an MLB team can not have bought land in the city. Vegas has the A's in all but name right now, so they do not count on this list. I have broken down the criteria into four things that can be ranked and graphed. The population of the City, Metro pop, Purchasing Power, aka the cost of living compared to median income, and seats needed for MLB capacity. I did not use fan interest because, first off, that is a tricky thing to track and record. And any survey data that I could send out to people living in these cities could be seen as biased. So, let’s see the 16 cities that met the needed requirements, shall we?

San Antonio, Texas. Austin, Texas. Jacksonville Florida. San Jose California, Columbus Ohio, Charlotte North Carolina, Indianapolis Indiana, Oklahoma City Oklahoma, Nashville Tennessee, Portland Oregon, Louisville Kentucky, Sacramento California, Raleigh North Carolina, Virginia Beach-Norfolk Virginia (which in the data is just simply Virginia Beach), Orlando Florida, and Salt Lake City Utah. Some interesting choices, I know. Here’s my logic for a few of them. San Jose, I’m using the Cubs-White Sox distance as a factor in a metro of that size. Raleigh currently has the Hurricanes in the NHL. Austin is a much-growing city and a younger demo as well. The others are a collection of towns with a minor league team or are trying to get an MLB team to their city. So, let’s get on with the first category City Population

1 San Antonio 1.5 Mil

2 Austin 974,447

3 Jacksonville 971,319

4 San Jose 971,223

5 Columbus 907,971

6 Charlotte 897,720

7 Indianapolis 880,621

8 Oklahoma City 694,800

9 Nashville 683,622

10 Portland 635,067

11 Louisville 624,444

12 Sacramento 528,001

13 Raleigh 476,587

14 Virginia Beach 457,672

15 Orlando 316,081

16 Salt Lake City 204,657

Not much of a surprise here. It is pretty straightforward in this category, so let’s go on to the Metro Population.

1 Orlando 4.2 Mil

2 Portland 3.3 Mil

3 Charlotte 2.8 Mil

4 Salt Lake City 2.7 Mil

5 Sacramento 2.6 Mil

6 San Antonio 2.6 Mil

7 Columbus 2.5 Mil

8 Indianapolis 2.5 Mil

9 Austin 2.3 Mil

10 Raleigh 2.1 Mil

12 San Jose 1.9 Mil il

12San Jose 1.9 Mil

13 Virginia Beach 1.8 Mil

14 Jacksonville 1.7 Mil

15 OKC 1.5 Mil

16 Louisville 1.5 Mil

Once again, there's not too much to explain here other than San Jose, in this one, does not pull from the San Francisco metro, so that hurt them a bit. Now, the next category is a bit tricky and needs some explaining, as the Purchasing Power Rankings all come from 2019. A study was done on the top 50 US Metros, comparing the median income per person and putting that against the cost of living in that metro. And as we have established, all cities involved had to meet the mark of a top 50 metro. The higher the cost of living, the worse the city did. This is to show a rough idea of the disposable income an average baseball fan may have in that city. So, this is based on their ranking as a city of the PPR and their ranking number included.

1 LOU 3

2 OKC 6

3 IND 7

4 COL 9

5 SA 12

6 NSH 13

7 CHA 15

8 SLC 16

9 JAX 17

10 VB 19

11 RAL 20

12 ORL 26

13 AUS 28

14 SAC 36

15 POR 37

16 SJ 49

The most shocking part of this data is how consistently well several cities are doing so far, and no one has genuinely stepped ahead of the pack. That is until the hoop that could be the largest to jump through for most cities, and that is a baseball stadium. The smallest MLB stadium is Progressive Field in Cleveland, with a capacity of 34,830. I then took the largest Baseball stadium from each city (if they had one) and subtracted that amount from 34,830 to see how many fewer seats they would have. Note there is not a fixed number of seats needed for an MLB stadium; however, when the Blue Jays played in Buffalo, they had to add seating. So, the scene is set. What city is the most ready when it comes to their ballpark?

1 Salt Lake City -20319

2 Indianapolis -20600

3 Sacramento -20816

4 Louisville -21699

5 Virginia Beach -22974

6 Jacksonville -23830

7 Charlotte -24630

8 Columbus -24730

9 Nashville -24830

10 San Antonio -25630

11 Oklahoma City -25830

12 Orlando -27330

13 Austin -27457

14 San Jose -30630

15 Raleigh -32630

16 Portland NONE

Well, not Portland, as the former home of the AAA Beavers is now a soccer and football stadium instead of a baseball one. Several of the cities' only stadium is that of the local college (Raleigh and Austin). The fact that Sacramento scored so well on this is truly surprising, as no one talks about the stadium currently used for the River Cats. And now we sit here with the data I have presented before you. The only way to show how well the cities did is to show the final standings based off the average score that they had. The lower the number, the better, kind of like golf. Call it the last report card, if you will.

Total Score

1 IND 5

2 SA 5.5

3 COL 6

4 SLC 7.25

5 CHA 7.6

6 JAX 8 LOU 8

8 SAC 8.5

9 NSH 8.75

10 OKC 9

11 AUS 9.25

12 ORL 10

13 VB 10.5

14 POR 10.75

15 SJ 11.5

16 RAL 12.25

Three cities separated themselves from the rest. Columbus was and is a dark horse city to get an MLB team. Already having the Blue Jackets in the NHL and the Clippers in AAA, I picked them because I believe they can be an excellent spot for the MLB. Perhaps a few trial runs are in order, much like the MLB has done with Omaha. Maybe having the Reds and Guardians play two series there would help. San Antonio has been begging for another team beyond the Spurs and has shown they are willing and ready to support one. Plus, off the back of the success the Texas teams have had in the MLB, why not another team in Texas? Indianapolis Should have an MLB team, and all the data shows it. Give the city a chance, and they will run with it. It already has one of the most beautiful stadiums in the minors that has the ability to have its capacity expanded. The most disappointing in the final tally is Nashville ending in the bottom half of the board. A city that has been demanding a team couldn’t top Jacksonville or Sacramento.