Using Data Analysis to Identify the Next Best Cities for MLB Expansion

Well, here we go again. The MLB has sparked a firestorm on Twitter this past week, following the comments made by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred. Manfred was talking about possible MLB Expansion during the Mariners vs Mets Little League Classic game. "I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign. I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you'd be playing out of the east and out of the west." This is understandable, so it has taken baseball Twitter by storm. With everyone throwing their two cents in. However, one thing has become very apparent from this: the ones spearheading this topic aren't the fans. It’s the league and the TV networks. The MLB and MLB on Fox Twitter accounts have put out several different possibilities for what the league could look like for expansion, and one thing is very clear. There seems to be a disdain for Nashville. In the graphics that have been posted, I’ve seen more Portland and Salt Lake than Nashville, which, while those are two markets, I know the MLB would love to move into. They are definitely not the loudest about it. Nashville, Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville have made the most noise besides the A’s fans who have been abandoned in Oakland. 

Two years ago, I wrote an article on B-CardEntertainment.com called Using Math to Find the Next MLB Expansion Cities. Not to spoil the article for you, as you should go read it for yourself, but using the criteria that I did, I discovered something. The MLB is targeting the wrong cities for expansion. Portland, Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville didn’t score well at the end of the day. Now, granted, one of the metrics that was used for the exercise was the size of a ballpark in the city currently. Which crushed Portland, as they don’t have a ballpark at the moment. In the article, I used 16 possible cities from the US, but now we are taking it to another level. I enlisted the help of the rest of B-Card to help me with this thought exercise. I asked Ben, Tommy, Will, and Brent for their top five cities they want the MLB to expand to, and then compiled that list using the metrics from the article to see which cities would fit for the MLB would be to expand to. The only thing that I told them is that the city must have a metro within the top 60 metros in the US. This will help the metrics a bit more, as one of the old metrics I used in the article was metro populations. So now the metrics are the population of the Metro, seats needed for MLB capacity, TV Market Size, and actual viability for an MLB team. Viability is one of the two newest metrics for measuring such; we will see how other pro sports teams have done for attendance in the past or currently in that city. The TV market size is pretty straightforward. So, without further ado, the picks from the B-Card staff for the expansion cities. I had to remove the PPR from the last article, as the data that I used two years ago is no longer available. 

Brent’s picks are Portland, Salt Lake, Nashville, Charlotte, and New Orleans. New Orleans is a really interesting pick as the city does not have a minor league team anymore. The rest are pretty common picks that are relatively safe bets that they will have MLB baseball played in them at some point.

Tommy’s picks are as follows. Montreal, Vancouver, Orlando, Memphis, and Oklahoma City. International flair on display from Tommy and his picks. While he was bummed out that New Orleans had already, he responded quite well. Orlando is a market that has made a push recently for an MLB team, including releasing plans for an MLB stadium. Memphis is a city that has had success with minor league teams and could easily make improvements to its current stadium for MLB usage. Vancouver is the third-largest metro in Canada, and as seen whenever the Blue Jays play Seattle, it has quite the baseball following. Oklahoma City is a low-key pick as the city has grown quite a bit and continues to grow, as it is just outside the top 40 and is comparable in size to Milwaukee. Montreal is because of course, the Expos, who Tommy loves.

Will went in a different direction with his selections: San Antonio, San Juan, Rochester, Honolulu, and San Jose. An assortment of cities as interesting as the man who picked them. San Antonio has been a very popular pick for expansion in the NFL and beyond, so the MLB would be a good fit, especially with the other Texas teams. San Juan is a hotbed for baseball, as is Puerto Rico as a whole, and Will is Puerto Rican, so that was a quick pick for him. Rochester, New York, at first is a surprising pick until you realize that Will has family there, and Rochester has a metro of over a million. Honolulu has been the great white whale in the minds of many for a pro sports team that no league has been brave enough to venture a chance on. Finally, San Jose, which feels like the most logical pick in California for expansion since the A’s left Oakland.

Ben’s picks are Austin, Sacramento, Buffalo, Tulsa, and Richmond. Some rather safe picks from Ben here, as Austin has become a massive market in the US and could support a team. Sacramento is the current temporary home for the A’s, but could easily be a permanent home for them. Buffalo, which for a year and a half was the home for the Blue Jays and did quite well as such. Tulsa, which is surprisingly growing at a fast rate, could be one of the best up-and-coming picks. And Richmond, which, while not the largest metro in Virginia, is the one with the most name recognition.  

Brock's picks are more in line with the past article: Indianapolis, Columbus, Louisville, Jacksonville, and Omaha. Some dark horse cities that I feel like could really do well are MLB cities such as Jacksonville and Indianapolis, both of which already have NFL teams in the same division. Columbus, I feel as if they should be in the running for an MLB team that scored very high in the article, and has a history with the Columbus Clippers. Louisville just because they need a pro sports team, and they are the home to possibly the most famous baseball bat company in Louisville Slugger. Omaha has my favorite baseball stadium, and it feels like it’s time to give a true test for a pro sports team.

Now, unfortunately, some cities have to be eliminated for what we will call logistical reasons. Honolulu and San Juan are gone due to a massive issue; neither is a part of the continental US. Making travel for the teams incredibly more expensive. Next is San Jose, which won’t be able to have a team due to San Francisco having media rights in San Jose. This was seen with the A’s fiasco. That leaves us with 22, and for the sake of the rest of this, Montreal and Vancouver are unfortunately going to have to be eliminated, as it would seem as if the MLB wants to only expand into the US, and some data points are harder to find for Canadian cities. That brings us down to 20

Now, to review the scoring rules, we are using the same ones from the article. All cities will be ranked 1-20 for each category. Those rankings will be compiled at the end and divided by the number of categories. Just like golf, the lower the score, the better you do. 

Now, let's start with the first metric population of the Metro.

1 Orlando 2.9 Mil

2 Charlotte 2.8 Mil

3 San Antonio 2.7 Mil

4 Austin 2.55 Mil

5 Portland 2.53 Mil

6 Sacramento 2.4 Mil

7 Columbus 2.2 Mil

8 Indianapolis 2.17 Mil

9 Nashville 2.15 Mil

10 Jacksonville 1.7 Mil

11 Oklahoma City 1.5 Mil

12 Louisville 1.4 Mil

13 Richmond 1.37 Mil

14 Memphis 1.34 Mil

15 Salt Lake 1.3 Mil

16 Buffalo 1.16 Mil

17 Tulsa 1.06 Mil

18 Rochester 1.057 Mil

19 Omaha 1 Mil

20 New Orleans 966, 230

One city on the list has a metro under 1 million, which will hurt them greatly in the final rankings. Otherwise, pretty straightforward here, nothing too shocking. New Orleans can catch up if need be. 

In the modern age, sports leagues are chasing the all-mighty dollar, and TV markets are a big part of that. The bigger the market, the better chance you have of getting a team.

1 Orlando

2 Sacramento

3 Charlotte

4 Portland

5 Indianapolis

6 Nashville

7 Salt Lake City

8 San Antonio

9 Austin

10 Columbus

11 Jacksonville

12 Oklahoma City

13 Louisville 

14 New Orleans 

15 Memphis

16 Buffalo

17 Richmond

18 Tulsa 

19 Omaha

20 Rochester

These rankings are based on the US broadcasts of the 2025 Nielsen Ratings, so if you have a question, that’s where the data came from. 

But the biggest hoop that cities need to jump through is that of a baseball stadium. The smallest MLB stadium currently is a minor league stadium for a city on this list. However, for this metric, we will use the small MLB stadium built for the MLB, which is Progressive Field in Cleveland, with a capacity of 34,830. If you didn’t read the article, we will use the seats for the current stadium in each city and subtract that from that of Progressive Field to see how each city compares. One city in particular will hurt the most from this.

1 Omaha +170

2 Buffalo -18,230 

3 Salt Lake -18,299

4 Rochester -21,330

5 Indianapolis –20,600

6 Louisville -21,699

7 Richmond -22,696

8 Jacksonville -23,830

9 Sacramento -24,206

10 Charlotte -24,630 

11 Columbus -24,730

12 tie Nashville -24,830

12 tie Memphis -24,830

12 tie New Orleans -24,830

15 Orlando -25,330

16 San Antonio -25,630

17 Oklahoma City -25,830

18 Tulsa -26,997

19 Austin -27,457

20 Portland -30,330

Omaha would be towards the top regardless, but the fact that there are plans to expand the stadium to seat 35,000 helped them out tremendously. Otherwise, not much movement from the article, other than I found a baseball stadium around Portland. New Orleans held some exhibition games at the Superdome in the 1990’s but honestly, probably not where a team in New Orleans would want to play. 

Now it’s time for the final metric viability. Now, this is based on the number of years the current Minor League, if there is one, has played in that city. The longer a team has been in that city, it is a good indicator that baseball works in that city. If a city has a team that moved away but is still active, they will count, but only for the years they were in that city. For Austin, Round Rock is part of Austin’s Metro and will be counted. 

1 Rochester 126

2 Indianapolis 123

3 Oklahoma City 63

4 Omaha 56

5 Jacksonville 55

6 San Antonio 53

7 Charlotte 49

8 Columbus and Tulsa 48

10 Nashville 47

11 Buffalo 46

12 Louisville 43

13 Orlando 40

14 Salt Lake City 31

15 Richmond 30

16 Memphis 27

17 New Orleans  26

18 Sacramento, and Austin 25

20 Portland 15

Rochester is home to the longest-running minor league baseball team in the Red Wings, so that should not be a shock to anybody that they are that high on the list. If there is a partner you see forming already, then it should not be shocking, as we come to the end of our data points. It’s now time for the final rankings from our data points. Some cities have done quite well. While others, as well, are not so much.

Indianapolis 4

Charlotte 5.5

Orlando 7.5

Jacksonville 8.5

San Antonio 8.25

Sacramento 8.75

Columbus 9

Nashville 9.25

Salt Lake 9.75 

Omaha 10.75

OKC 10.75

Louisville 10.75

Rochester 10.75

Buffalo 11.25

Austin 12.5

Portland 12.25

Richmond 13

Memphis 14.25

Tulsa 15.25

New Orleans 15.75

Well, there you go, honestly, if you read the last article this was based on two years ago, none of these should really be a shock. Indianapolis had the top spot in the last go-around, and they continue to reign as the best place to expand to on paper. New Orleans had several things going against it in the first place. As they were the only city with a metro below 1 million. Nashville once again scored poorly, scoring 8th out of 20th. While the MLB wants to move to Nashville, using our math, Nashville and Portland are not the best options. 

As for the names for the teams, I asked the B-Card boys again for some input and got the following names.

Indianapolis Nitro - For Indy’s rich racing history, and it's a play on the ECHL team's name, the Fuel.

Charlotte Knights - Keeping the AAA team's name made the most sense since the branding is tied to the city. Plus, the Horsemen didn’t sound so great, even if it was for both the role that cavalry played in the Revolutionary War in the Carolinas and for the Four Horsemen in Wrestling.

Orlando Dreamers - It was the name included in the proposed plans for an MLB stadium put forth by the city of Orlando. Honestly, a perfect name for a team home to the richest company on earth.

Jacksonville Armada - Named after the major US naval presence in the city. The Fleet also didn’t sound as good. 

San Antonio Rampage - While the name the Missions is very good as a minor league name for the MLB, it does not work as well. Defenders is too much of a boring name for the city. Rampage was the name of the AHL team that played in the city, and it can work very well for the city, ready to make its mark.

Sacramento Condors - The state bird of California for the state capital. It is also a name in Madden for relocation to Sacramento.

Now, as to what the MLB divisions would look like after this expansion. For this, while I know the MLB has hinted at adding two teams, we are adding six teams. I did try to just add two teams; however, the league got really weird as the Kansas City Royals were the biggest outliers, and I didn’t have a great place to put them. Same with the Texas teams. Adding six teams will make every division add one team, but there will be some shuffling done. For right now, I will not have the AL and NL next to the divisions just because I made these based on geographical area rather than the AL and NL differences.

First off, the Northeast Division includes Baltimore, Boston, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia, and Washington. Quite possibly the most toxic division the MLB could have, and for the sake of baseball, we need these six teams to be in the same division together.

Next is the Great Lakes Division includes Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Toronto. I know this division and the next one are the two that I will get ripped for the most; however, these six cities are all ones that are closer to each other, rather than the majority of their current division rivals.

The most controversial division is the Midwest Division. Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee, Minnesota, and St. Louis. Yes, I know this is sacrilegious to have the Cards and Cubs in what is basically the AL Central; however, if Rob Manfred wants to cut down on travel, these six teams would have the smallest area of travel next to the Great Lakes. Now each team also has more than one dance partner. The Cubs, for example, have the Cardinals and White Sox.

Next is the Southeast Division, which includes Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa Bay. This is the division that will probably be the most likely to happen, as the Florida teams and Atlanta have been kinda out by themselves for no reason. Now they are all together. 

While most divisions have as little travel as possible, this one would have quite a bit of travel involved. The Southwest Division features Arizona, Colorado, Houston, Las Vegas A’s, San Antonio, and Texas. These were the very last teams I had left over. And yet the division came together pretty well.

Finally, the Pacific Division Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. This was the first division for which I knew exactly who and what would be formed. The most obvious division the MLB could make for the new league is if the league expanded to 36 instead of 32. 

So what did this accomplish? In one word? Nothing. But nonetheless, it does show that sometimes the major sports leagues are looking at the wrong places to expand to. Who knows, maybe someone from the MLB will read this article and get a chuckle out of it, but as long as the fans understand that the all-mighty dollar is the driving factor in the decisions made by sports teams and the leagues that they are a part of, and not the fans themselves, I think that changes can be made. Or maybe we are doomed to a world of constant relocation of teams to different cities in search of more money. Maybe I should update that NFL article next?